There is a core of reality behind Biden's low ratings on the economy. Sure, Republicans are going to say it's bad, but they should be countered by Democrats saying its good, leaving the determining factors to be the perceptions of people who don't like either party. The fact that Biden is president means he got more than half of these folks to vote for him so they are not as a group polarized against all things Democratic. So, it is *possible* for Biden to be in positive territory on the economy.
What you do not note it that real wages have not risen over Bidens term. We have extremely low unemployment and yet real wages have fallen while profit margins *expanded.* If workers cannot get wages rising at the expense of profit margins *now* with unemployment at 3.5%, they never will.
The reason why this is happening seems clear to me. Employers simply are choosing to operate with fewer workers than they would like. Go to a restaurant today and you are expected to pay 20% or more as tip to you servers because their employers expect their customers to pay their labor bill. When I was a kid it was 10%. That's not inflation. Servers put up with it because there's no other options. Fast food chains who paid fixed wages simply run understaffed, to hell with customer service, rather than pay a wage that would keep them properly staffed.
The evidence is all around you of the forces against rising real wages. Workers know Republicans are the party of the rich; they used to be pretty up front about it, plus unions support Democrats, providing a signal. But the reality is that the situation for workers doesn't really change when party control of the Presidency changes. There is a reason for this. My substack discusses this and other things related to our current times.
Another funny thing about that Monmouth poll: In addition to the breakdown between Democrats and Republicans that you mention, Biden gets only 38% approval from "Independents" (I put scare quotes there because I've always thought the the Independent designation was bogus, and that most people are basically going to vote either Republican or Democratic, and many people who are embarrassed by the fact that they always vote Republican are going to call themselves "Independent").
Sure enough, if you look at the Demographic part of the poll, it's weighted this way: 26% Republican, 44% Independent, 30% Democratic. That's a pretty high percentage of self-reported "Independent" voters. What percentage of them are Republican-leaning? Who knows. I take this, and really all polls this far out from the election, with a grain of salt.
As we all probably remember, Obama was going to lose his re-election bid in 2012...until he didn't. At this point in the election cycle in 2011, 15 months out from the election, he had a slim and declining lead over the "generic Republican" running to replace him.
Nearly a year earlier, Politico had done the sad-face Obama illustration on an article which said Obama was going to lose, because "Most voters don’t believe President Barack Obama will win reelection, or that he deserves to."
The economy aside, let's see how Biden's approval ratings look after his probable rival is indicted for several more felonies. He can't get a much higher percentage of Republicans, while "Independents" may finally give up the ghost and decide that having Biden in the White House is a lot better than having a rapist and convicted criminal, who has already proven his inability to govern, or accept defeat.
That Republican perceptions have little to do with reality is dog bites man. I love this headline and lede graph though.
There is a core of reality behind Biden's low ratings on the economy. Sure, Republicans are going to say it's bad, but they should be countered by Democrats saying its good, leaving the determining factors to be the perceptions of people who don't like either party. The fact that Biden is president means he got more than half of these folks to vote for him so they are not as a group polarized against all things Democratic. So, it is *possible* for Biden to be in positive territory on the economy.
What you do not note it that real wages have not risen over Bidens term. We have extremely low unemployment and yet real wages have fallen while profit margins *expanded.* If workers cannot get wages rising at the expense of profit margins *now* with unemployment at 3.5%, they never will.
The reason why this is happening seems clear to me. Employers simply are choosing to operate with fewer workers than they would like. Go to a restaurant today and you are expected to pay 20% or more as tip to you servers because their employers expect their customers to pay their labor bill. When I was a kid it was 10%. That's not inflation. Servers put up with it because there's no other options. Fast food chains who paid fixed wages simply run understaffed, to hell with customer service, rather than pay a wage that would keep them properly staffed.
The evidence is all around you of the forces against rising real wages. Workers know Republicans are the party of the rich; they used to be pretty up front about it, plus unions support Democrats, providing a signal. But the reality is that the situation for workers doesn't really change when party control of the Presidency changes. There is a reason for this. My substack discusses this and other things related to our current times.
https://mikealexander.substack.com/p/how-economic-culture-evolves
https://mikealexander.substack.com/p/the-capitalist-crisis
https://mikealexander.substack.com/p/how-the-new-deal-order-fell
Another funny thing about that Monmouth poll: In addition to the breakdown between Democrats and Republicans that you mention, Biden gets only 38% approval from "Independents" (I put scare quotes there because I've always thought the the Independent designation was bogus, and that most people are basically going to vote either Republican or Democratic, and many people who are embarrassed by the fact that they always vote Republican are going to call themselves "Independent").
Sure enough, if you look at the Demographic part of the poll, it's weighted this way: 26% Republican, 44% Independent, 30% Democratic. That's a pretty high percentage of self-reported "Independent" voters. What percentage of them are Republican-leaning? Who knows. I take this, and really all polls this far out from the election, with a grain of salt.
As we all probably remember, Obama was going to lose his re-election bid in 2012...until he didn't. At this point in the election cycle in 2011, 15 months out from the election, he had a slim and declining lead over the "generic Republican" running to replace him.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2011/07/28/obama-loses-ground-in-2012-reelection-bid/
Nearly a year earlier, Politico had done the sad-face Obama illustration on an article which said Obama was going to lose, because "Most voters don’t believe President Barack Obama will win reelection, or that he deserves to."
https://www.politico.com/story/2010/12/poll-most-see-obama-losing-in-2012-046499
The economy aside, let's see how Biden's approval ratings look after his probable rival is indicted for several more felonies. He can't get a much higher percentage of Republicans, while "Independents" may finally give up the ghost and decide that having Biden in the White House is a lot better than having a rapist and convicted criminal, who has already proven his inability to govern, or accept defeat.