Yes, Harris Won. But Trump ALWAYS Loses Debates
Trump's debate victory over Biden was shocking in large part because this fool never won a presidential debate before.
Sorry to bring this up, but Hillary’s debate victories over Trump did not win her the 2016 election.
As Steven Shepard pointed out earlier this week in Politico, political scientists can no longer say “presidential debates don’t matter,” because the first presidential debate in 2024 knocked Joe Biden clear out of the race. A CNN “flash” poll conducted immediately afterwards showed 67 percent said Trump won and 33 percent said Biden won—a 34-point spread. Ouch! On the day of the June 27 debate, Trump was up 1.5 points over Biden, according to poll averages compiled by Real Clear Politics. One week later, Trump had expanded his lead to 3.1 points. It never got any better, and private polls reportedly painted a more dismal picture.
The question before the house today is: How much do debates matter, in this unusual political year? This week a CNN flash poll showed 63 percent said Harris won and 37 percent said Trump won—a 26-point spread. That’s bad, but it’s not quite as bad as the Trump-Biden debacle. On the other hand, a separate YouGov flash poll gave Harris a slightly narrower 23-point spread over Trump that was almost identical to the 21-point spread YouGov gave Trump over Biden after their debate.
Sadly, the consequences of Trump’s debate defeat do not appear to be as dire as those for Biden’s debate defeat. On the day of the September 10 debate, Harris was up 1.1 points over Trump, per Real Clear Politics. Two days later, Harris is up 1.2 points over Trump. Maybe that lead will be wider one week after the debate, but by this time after the Trump-Biden debate Trump’s lead had already expanded from 1.5 points to 1.9 points.
Two debates, both ending in the forensic equivalent of a knockout. Why the different outcomes? In large part, I think, because voters know already that Trump is a terrible debater. The June 27 debate against Biden was the first presidential debate Trump ever won. CNN flash polls showed Trump lost both debates in 2020 to Biden (28-60 percent and then 39-53 percent), and of course Biden won the election. But CNN flash polls also showed Trump lost all three debates in 2016 to Hillary Clinton (27-62 percent, 34-57 percent, and 39-52 percent), and Trump won that election (though not the popular vote). The best you can say about Trump’s debate abilities is that, within any given election year, they poll better in successive matchups. But that’s probably because the shocking experience of watching this blustering fool lose one debate has the effect of lowering expectations for the next one. Note that Clinton’s 35-point spread over Trump in that first debate was largest of all—larger even than the point spread that this year made Biden’s withdrawal a fait accompli—yet it did not alter the outcome.
We aren’t out of the woods!
With that happy thought, let me invite you to read my latest New Republic piece, which faults Harris for ducking the first question posed to her in the debate: Are you better off than you were four years ago? For complicated reasons, she was afraid to deliver the correct answer, which was “Of course we are.” I understand why, but I also think that if Harris doesn’t point out how very much better we all are than we were in September 2020, the Republicans aren’t going to do it for her. You can read my piece here.