Mr. Burns Is Back

Yes, January unemployment hit a 54-year low. But follow the money: wage increases have been falling for a year. The tight labor market is ending, and bosses know it.

You’re probably feeling a little confused. Yesterday the Wall Street Journal announced “The Bosses Are Back In Charge.” Today the New York Times reported that the labor market is “extraordinarily tight.” Which is it?

Both. But the real news—which is to say, the trend not of one month but of one year—is that wage growth continues to decline. Which means that, despite January’s freakishly low unemployment rate of 3.4 percent, the upper hand that workers acquired two years ago is fading away, and management is licking its chops. Prepare to sing a requiem for the tight labor market.

That’s the subject of my latest New Republic piece. You can read it here.